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How to play Wild Swarm
“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.
It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.
A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.
How to play Wild Swarm
James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.
The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.
“If we just sold the data to Kalshi in order to list the markets but no one was coming in and placing liquidity, there’s no point in them listing the markets,” Monk said. “We also need to supply the data to the market makers to inform their models.”
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“In terms of the SunBet business, there might be opportunities to consolidate locally, but there might also be opportunities outside of South Africa. We are looking at all of it, but we have a very high bar for what we deem to be good investments.”
SunBet launched in Namibia in May, with Bede Gaming powering its platform.
SunBet also utilises Bede Gaming’s platform in its other two markets of South Africa and Botswana, the latter of which it entered in 2024.
