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Two blockbuster developments in the casino space earlier this year seemed to indicate an increasingly bullish bet on the sector, including Fertitta Entertainment’s acquisition of Caesars Entertainment in May. The other is a subsequent takeover offer of MGM Resorts from its largest shareholder, Barry Diller’s People Inc. But a negative shift in market conditions could affect both deals.

In July, Fertitta’s General Counsel Steven Scheinthal told the Nevada Gaming Control Board that the company had a letter of intent from banks to finance the transaction but was waiting for better borrowing conditions. Fertitta is assuming nearly $12 billion in Caesars’ debt and is committed to a $6.6 billion financing package.

“Our hope is that in the next few months there will be a window of opportunity where the market will be hotter and [it’s] a more interest rate friendly environment where we can go raise the money and then just put it in an escrow account,” Scheinthal said at the time.

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Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

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The gap comes as Phnom Penh prepares to host its major anti-scam conference on 23-24 September, part of the wider government campaign against online scam networks.

Initially framed as “Together Towards Disrupting the Chain and Ending Online Scams” by AKP in August, the conference now carries the theme “Acting Together towards Breaking the Chain and Eradication of Online Scams” on its official website. 

Prime Minister Hun Manet has publicly characterised the crackdown as an effort to “clean our house” and restore Cambodia’s reputation internationally.