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Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

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On Monday, the Gambling Regulators European Forum (GREF) announced a reshuffle of its board following the departure of two long-standing members and the appointment of two new officers.

GREF is a cooperative network bringing together national gambling regulators across Europe and beyond to facilitate dialogue, exchange information and share best practice on regulatory strategies. 

Tim Miller, who resigned from the UK Gambling Commission earlier this year, has stepped down from the GREF board and has relinquished his role as treasurer. 

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In January, Acting Gambling Authority CEO Moruntshi Kemorwale said reported problem gambling had declined from 5% in 2020 to 3.4% in 2025. It was a change he attributed in part to the regulator’s National Responsible Gambling Programme and nationwide education and outreach.

He said the Authority’s role was to protect the public while ensuring gambling benefited Botswana. Kemorwale added that it was working with police against illegal promoters who make misleading promises of wealth, and that its approach to licensed operators emphasised guidance and compliance alongside enforcement.

The dispute over the legal gambling age comes as the Gambling Authority steps up its warnings about illegal online betting.